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Does Danticat win the National Book Award on November 18?

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The story

Edwidge Danticat, the Haitian writer who lives in Miami, could finally win the National Book Award: she is a Fiction finalist for the third time and has never taken it home.

Her novel «Dèy» follows Magnolia, a Haitian real estate agent in Miami who cannot bring herself to tell her family the truth; the National Book Foundation calls it «a meditation on mourning, immigration, gentrification, and diasporic identity». She is up against Valeria Luiselli, Hannah Lillith Assadi, Julián Delgado Lopera and Morgan Thomas. The winner is announced November 18 in New York.

Sources National Book FoundationNPR (vía WLRN)

YES if Edwidge Danticat wins the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction for «Dèy» at the ceremony on Wednesday, November 18, 2026 in New York, per the National Book Foundation (official list published by November 19 at 11:59 p.m., Miami time). NO if another Fiction finalist wins, or if no winner is announced that night.

630 points 17 bettors (Cuba time)

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Closes in 8 d 14 h

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52% Yes 48% No

Chart

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1D1W1MAll
83% · Nov 9, 2:35 AM 90% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:37 AM 60% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM 45% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM 45% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 50% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 54% · Nov 9, 2:42 AM 59% · Nov 9, 2:43 AM 53% · Nov 9, 2:45 AM 47% · Nov 9, 2:48 AM 47% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 51% · Nov 9, 2:52 AM 50% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM 46% · Nov 9, 2:58 AM 46% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:02 AM 56% · Nov 9, 3:07 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:08 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 50% · Nov 9, 3:17 AM 50% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:36 AM

YES 52%

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How the pot stands

YES 52% 48% NO
Pays x1.90 Pays x2.10
330 points300 points
Pot %

Context

Edwidge Danticat figura como finalista del National Book Award de Ficción 2026 por «Dèy», y la pregunta se resuelve según si gana en la ceremonia del miércoles 18 de noviembre de 2026 en Nueva York. El resultado se verifica con la lista oficial de la National Book Foundation publicada el 19 de noviembre a las 11:59 p. m., hora de Miami. Hasta ahora no hay titulares que reporten un ganador, y la pregunta tampoco se decide si el premio recae en otro finalista o si no se anuncia ganador esa noche. En La Ponina la predicción está repartida en 380 puntos, con SÍ al 50% y NO al 50%.

Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 2:57 AM.

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Timeline

  1. Opened
  2. ClosesNext

Market rules

 YES if Edwidge Danticat wins the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction for «Dèy» at the ceremony on Wednesday, November 18, 2026 in New York, per the National Book Foundation (official list published by November 19 at 11:59 p.m., Miami time). NO if another Fiction finalist wins, or if no winner is announced that night. Closes Nov 17, 6:00 PM.
Question
Does Danticat win the National Book Award on November 18?
How it resolves
YES if Edwidge Danticat wins the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction for «Dèy» at the ceremony on Wednesday, November 18, 2026 in New York, per the National Book Foundation (official list published by November 19 at 11:59 p.m., Miami time). NO if another Fiction finalist wins, or if no winner is announced that night.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
National Book Foundation, finalistas 2026 (https://www.nationalbook.org/2026-national-book-award-finalists-announced/); confirmation: NPR, finalistas del National Book Award 2026 (https://www.wlrn.org/npr-breaking-news/2026-10-06/here-are-the-finalists-for-the-2026-national-book-awards)Both sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Nov 17, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.

Questions about this ponina

What do people say right now?

Right now 52% of the points are on YES and 48% on NO.

How many people have put points?

17 people have put 630 points in total.

What are people saying in the chat?

There are 4 comments. The chat is further down this same page.

When does it close?

It closes on Nov 17, 6:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.

How do I put points?

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How is it decided?

YES if Edwidge Danticat wins the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction for «Dèy» at the ceremony on Wednesday, November 18, 2026 in New York, per the National Book Foundation (official list published by November 19 at 11:59 p.m., Miami time). NO if another Fiction finalist wins, or if no winner is announced that night. Closes Nov 17, 6:00 PM.

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