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¿Anunciará Rubio que deja el Departamento de Estado antes de 2027?

Closes in 53 d 9 h

Data from Kalshi

YES 16.5%

Kalshi data

  • Open interest $40,111 on Kalshi

Volume over time on Kalshi

What does La Ponina say?

0 poninos made a call · Free points only, no money.

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  1. On Kalshi: $18.02 on YESYES now at 17%
  2. On Kalshi: $1.70 on YESYES now at 17%
  3. On Kalshi: $3.91 on YESYES now at 17%
  4. On Kalshi: $1.97 on NOYES now at 16%
  5. On Kalshi: $8.66 on NOYES now at 16%
  6. On Kalshi: $1.97 on NOYES now at 16%
  7. On Kalshi: $3.78 on YESYES now at 18%
  8. On Kalshi: $4.42 on YESYES now at 18%
  9. On Kalshi: $5.04 on YESYES now at 18%
  10. On Kalshi: $4.94 on NOYES now at 16%
  11. On Kalshi: $8.30 on NOYES now at 17%
  12. On Kalshi: $8.66 on NOYES now at 18%
  13. On Kalshi: $57.96 on NOYES now at 16%
  14. On Kalshi: $573 on NOYES now at 18%
  15. On Kalshi: $263 on NOYES now at 18%
  16. On Kalshi: $8.69 on NOYES now at 17%
  17. On Kalshi: $83 on NOYES now at 17%
  18. On Kalshi: $41 on NOYES now at 18%
  19. On Kalshi: $20.75 on NOYES now at 17%
  20. On Kalshi: $18.70 on NOYES now at 18%

Si Marco Rubio deja (o anuncia que dejará) su cargo de Secretario de Estado antes del 1 de enero de 2027, entonces esta pregunta se resuelve como Sí.

Original Kalshi text (in English)

If Marco Rubio leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of State before Jan 1, 2027, then the question resolves to Yes.

This question resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, does not count. Being considered for or named to another position, or announcing a campaign for office, does not count unless the announcement states or clearly communicates that Marco Rubio will cease to be Secretary of State. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count, including a statement that he will serve until then, that he will not serve in the next administration, or that he will take another office beginning then. …

Sources Kalshi uses

  • Marco Rubio
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • Bloomberg News
  • The Washington Post
  • the Associated Press
  • Fox News
  • Reuters
  • United States Department of State
  • the White House
  • CNN
  • the New York Times
  • Politico
  • Financial Times
  • MSNBC
  • NBC
  • ABC
  • CBS
  • CNBC
  • ABC News Australia
  • Deutsche Welle
  • BBC
  • White House
Who may not take part
  • Las personas que estén empleadas por cualquiera de las Agencias de Origen no tienen permitido negociar en el Contrato.
  • Las personas que posean cualquier información material no pública sobre el Subyacente no tienen permitido negociar en el Contrato.

Timeline

  1. Opens
  2. Closes
  3. Estimated payout 30 min after closing
  4. Deadline