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Closes in 803 d 19 h

Data from Kalshi

YES 3.5%

  • CubaMoved $272K on Kalshi 3%
  • Puerto RicoMoved $226K on Kalshi 2%
  • VenezuelaMoved $445K on Kalshi 2%
  • GreenlandMoved $462K on Kalshi 2%
  • GuamMoved $87.5K on Kalshi 2%
  • CanadaMoved $238K on Kalshi 2%
  • District of ColumbiaMoved $136K on Kalshi 1%
  • ColombiaMoved $129K on Kalshi <1%
Cuba 3%Puerto Rico 2%Venezuela 2%Greenland 2%

Cuba 3%, Puerto Rico 2%, Venezuela 2%, Greenland 2%

Moved $2M on Kalshi Closes Jan 20, 2029

Kalshi data

  • Open interest $108,722 on Kalshi

Volume over time on Kalshi

What does La Ponina say?

0 poninos made a call · Free points only, no money.

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  1. On Kalshi: $0.99 on NOYES now at 3%
  2. On Kalshi: $0.99 on NOYES now at 3%
  3. On Kalshi: $0.97 on NOYES now at 3%
  4. On Kalshi: $0.02 on YESYES now at 4%
  5. On Kalshi: $0.04 on YESYES now at 4%
  6. On Kalshi: $0.90 on YESYES now at 4%
  7. On Kalshi: $0.22 on NOYES now at 3%
  8. On Kalshi: $3.25 on NOYES now at 3%
  9. On Kalshi: $20.45 on NOYES now at 3%
  10. On Kalshi: $0.04 on YESYES now at 4%
  11. On Kalshi: $0.04 on YESYES now at 4%
  12. On Kalshi: $0.12 on YESYES now at 4%
  13. On Kalshi: $0.04 on YESYES now at 4%
  14. On Kalshi: $0.12 on YESYES now at 4%
  15. On Kalshi: $0.49 on NOYES now at 3%
  16. On Kalshi: $0.94 on YESYES now at 4%
  17. On Kalshi: $0.10 on NOYES now at 3%
  18. On Kalshi: $113 on NOYES now at 3%
  19. On Kalshi: $0.84 on YESYES now at 4%
  20. On Kalshi: $18.84 on NOYES now at 4%

Si cualquier parte de Cuba es el estado 51 antes del 20 de enero de 2029, entonces esta pregunta se resuelve como Sí.

Only one option can end on YES

Original Kalshi text (in English)

If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the question resolves to Yes.

Sources Kalshi uses

  • Library of Congress
Who may not take part
  • Las personas empleadas por cualquiera de las Agencias Fuente no tienen permitido negociar con el Contrato.
  • Las personas que posean cualquier información material no pública sobre el Subyacente no tienen permitido negociar con el Contrato.

Timeline

  1. Opens
  2. Closes
  3. Estimated payout 30 min after closing
  4. Deadline