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Closes in 53 d 9 h

Data from Polymarket

YES 11.5%

Polymarket data

  • Open interest $353,249 on Polymarket
  • Liquidity $24,123 on Polymarket

Volume over time on Polymarket

What does La Ponina say?

0 poninos made a call · Free points only, no money.

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  1. On Polymarket: $12.92 on NOYES now at 11%
  2. On Polymarket: $110 on NOYES now at 11%
  3. On Polymarket: $10.03 on NOYES now at 11%
  4. On Polymarket: $41.41 on NOYES now at 11%
  5. On Polymarket: $2.88 on YESYES now at 11%
  6. On Polymarket: $8.90 on YESYES now at 11%
  7. On Polymarket: $8.90 on YESYES now at 11%
  8. On Polymarket: $1 on NOYES now at 10%
  9. On Polymarket: $5.20 on YESYES now at 11%
  10. On Polymarket: $88 on YESYES now at 12%
  11. On Polymarket: $40.57 on YESYES now at 11%
  12. On Polymarket: $205 on YESYES now at 11%
  13. On Polymarket: $83.47 on YESYES now at 9%
  14. On Polymarket: $100 on NOYES now at 8%
  15. On Polymarket: $0.07 on NOYES now at 8%
  16. On Polymarket: $18.60 on NOYES now at 7%
  17. On Polymarket: $18 on YESYES now at 8%
  18. On Polymarket: $12.58 on YESYES now at 8%
  19. On Polymarket: $3.44 on NOYES now at 7%
  20. On Polymarket: $3.93 on YESYES now at 8%

Esta pregunta se resolverá como «Sí» si se anuncia o se reporta de manera creíble que ocurrió un ataque con dron, misil o aéreo iniciado por EE. UU. en el territorio de Cuba antes de la fecha indicada, hora del Este. De lo contrario, esta pregunta se resolverá como «No». Para los propósitos de esta pregunta, un «ataque» que califica se define como el uso de bombas aéreas, drones o misiles (incluidos ataques de FPV y ATGM, así como misiles de crucero o balísticos) lanzados por cualquier operativo de Estados Unidos, incluidas fuerzas militares, agencias de inteligencia u otros operativos del gobierno de EE. UU., que impacten físicamente territorio terrestre dentro del país indicado. Cuenta un ataque en cualquier área dentro del territorio terrestre (incluidos ríos, lagos, puertos, pero excluyendo el mar territorial) del país indicado. Los misiles o drones que sean interceptados y los ataques de misiles tierra-aire no serán suficientes para una resolución «Sí», independientemente de si aterrizan en territorio o causan daños. Acciones como fuego de artillería, fuego de armas pequeñas, incursiones terrestres, bombardeos navales o ciberataques no calificarán. Cualquier ataque que ocurra durante el período de tiempo de esta pregunta y que sea reclamado por Donald Trump o por el gobierno de EE. UU. calificará. ...

Original Polymarket text (in English)

This question will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this question will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this question, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this question’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. …

Timeline

  1. Closes