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¿Habrá un choque militar entre EE. UU. y Cuba en 2026?

Closes in 53 d 9 h

Data from Polymarket

YES 7.5%

Polymarket data

  • Open interest $37,010 on Polymarket
  • Liquidity $19,095 on Polymarket

Volume over time on Polymarket

What does La Ponina say?

0 poninos made a call · Free points only, no money.

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  1. On Polymarket: $1 on NOYES now at 7%
  2. On Polymarket: $4 on YESYES now at 8%
  3. On Polymarket: $213 on NOYES now at 7%
  4. On Polymarket: $8.37 on NOYES now at 7%
  5. On Polymarket: $9.30 on NOYES now at 7%
  6. On Polymarket: $54.76 on YESYES now at 8%
  7. On Polymarket: $10.69 on YESYES now at 8%
  8. On Polymarket: $2.96 on NOYES now at 8%
  9. On Polymarket: $4.12 on NOYES now at 8%
  10. On Polymarket: $4.12 on NOYES now at 8%
  11. On Polymarket: $11.14 on NOYES now at 8%
  12. On Polymarket: $500 on NOYES now at 8%
  13. On Polymarket: $100 on NOYES now at 8%
  14. On Polymarket: $10.80 on YESYES now at 10%
  15. On Polymarket: $10.08 on NOYES now at 9%
  16. On Polymarket: $0.53 on NOYES now at 9%
  17. On Polymarket: $10 on YESYES now at 11%
  18. On Polymarket: $2 on YESYES now at 11%
  19. On Polymarket: $15.61 on YESYES now at 11%
  20. On Polymarket: $20 on NOYES now at 9%

Esta pregunta se resolverá como «Sí» si hay un encuentro militar entre las fuerzas militares de Estados Unidos y Cuba entre la creación de la pregunta y diciembre [número] PM ET. De lo contrario, esta pregunta se resolverá como «No». Un «encuentro militar» se define como cualquier incidente que involucre el uso de la fuerza, como ataques con misiles, fuego de artillería, intercambio de disparos u otras formas de enfrentamiento militar directo entre las fuerzas militares de EE. UU. y Cuba. Las acciones no violentas, como disparos de advertencia, fuego de artillería hacia zonas deshabitadas o lanzamientos de misiles que caigan en aguas territoriales o atraviesen el espacio aéreo, no calificarán para una resolución «Sí». El embestimiento intencional de un buque que resulte en daños significativos a (por ejemplo, un agujero en el casco) o el hundimiento de un buque militar por otro contará para una resolución «Sí», sin embargo, los daños menores (rasguños, abolladuras) no contarán. Nota: la Guardia Costera de Estados Unidos se considera parte de las fuerzas militares de Estados Unidos, y la Guardia Fronteriza de Cuba se considera parte de las fuerzas militares de Cuba. La fuente de resolución para esta pregunta será un consenso de reportes creíbles.

Original Polymarket text (in English)

This question will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between question creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this question will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.

The resolution source for this question will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Timeline

  1. Closes