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Does the US sanction Ortega's dictatorship before November 30?

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The story

On November 8 Nicaraguans were supposed to elect a president, but the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, co-presidents since the 2025 reform, never called the vote.

That day Juan Pablo Segura, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, wrote: «We have not forgotten that Nicaraguans should be voting in presidential elections today», and called them «two despots». Five days earlier Trump had renewed the national emergency on Nicaragua for a year, with no new names, and in September Marco Rubio had announced more measures over the reform that limits elections. What remains to be seen is whether new sanctions with names arrive before the month is out.

Sources Nicaragua InvestigaCiberCubaInfobaeConfidencial

YES if between November 9 and 29, 2026 (Miami time) the US Treasury (OFAC) or the State Department announces new financial or visa sanctions against at least one named person or entity linked to the Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo regime. The November 3 renewal of the national emergency does not count. NO if no new sanction is announced in that period.

550 points 17 bettors (Cuba time)

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Closes in 20 d 14 h

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53% Yes 47% No

Chart

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1D1W1MAll
50% · Nov 9, 2:34 AM 86% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM 75% · Nov 9, 2:37 AM 80% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM 83% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM 59% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM 53% · Nov 9, 2:40 AM 53% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 55% · Nov 9, 2:43 AM 63% · Nov 9, 2:46 AM 54% · Nov 9, 2:49 AM 54% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 59% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM 65% · Nov 9, 2:58 AM 65% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM 63% · Nov 9, 3:02 AM 65% · Nov 9, 3:07 AM 65% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 61% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:12 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:22 AM 50% · Nov 9, 3:27 AM 50% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM 53% · Nov 9, 3:35 AM

YES 53%

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How the pot stands

YES 53% 47% NO
Pays x1.89 Pays x2.11
290 points260 points
Pot %

Context

La pregunta plantea si Estados Unidos anunciará sanciones nuevas contra personas o entidades vinculadas al régimen de Daniel Ortega y Rosario Murillo entre el 9 y el 29 de noviembre de 2026, ya sea a través del Tesoro (OFAC) o del Departamento de Estado. Para que la respuesta sea SÍ debe tratarse de medidas nuevas, financieras o de visas, y no cuenta la renovación de la emergencia nacional del 3 de noviembre. En La Ponina la predicción se inclina hacia el SÍ con 64% de los 360 puntos, mientras que el NO concentra el 36% restante.

Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 2:57 AM.

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Timeline

  1. Opened
  2. ClosesNext

Market rules

 YES if between November 9 and 29, 2026 (Miami time) the US Treasury (OFAC) or the State Department announces new financial or visa sanctions against at least one named person or entity linked to the Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo regime. The November 3 renewal of the national emergency does not count. NO if no new sanction is announced in that period. Closes Nov 29, 6:00 PM.
Question
Does the US sanction Ortega's dictatorship before November 30?
How it resolves
YES if between November 9 and 29, 2026 (Miami time) the US Treasury (OFAC) or the State Department announces new financial or visa sanctions against at least one named person or entity linked to the Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo regime. The November 3 renewal of the national emergency does not count. NO if no new sanction is announced in that period.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
Tesoro de EE. UU., acciones recientes de OFAC (https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions); confirmation: Departamento de Estado de EE. UU., comunicados (https://www.state.gov/)Both sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Nov 29, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.

Questions about this ponina

What do people say right now?

Right now 53% of the points are on YES and 47% on NO.

How many people have put points?

17 people have put 550 points in total.

What are people saying in the chat?

There are 4 comments. The chat is further down this same page.

When does it close?

It closes on Nov 29, 6:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.

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How is it decided?

YES if between November 9 and 29, 2026 (Miami time) the US Treasury (OFAC) or the State Department announces new financial or visa sanctions against at least one named person or entity linked to the Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo regime. The November 3 renewal of the national emergency does not count. NO if no new sanction is announced in that period. Closes Nov 29, 6:00 PM.

Can I follow it without putting points?

Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.

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