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Does Rabat leave Kast's cabinet before December 31?
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Does Rabat leave Kast's cabinet before December 31?

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The story

President José Antonio Kast refuses to drop his Justice Minister, Fernando Rabat, in the middle of the crisis over sentence reductions for 56 people convicted of sexual crimes.

«I ruled it out yesterday and I still rule it out», Kast said of a cabinet change, and Rabat said: «I hope to accompany the President through his four years». But undersecretary Luis Silva is already out, parties in his own coalition want changes, and deputy Raúl Soto says the constitutional accusation against Rabat «is 99% ready» and will get votes from the governing bloc. Kast already made a lightning cabinet change in May, dropping two ministers 69 days into his term.

Sources CNN Chile24horasCooperativaInfobae (EFE)

YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) Fernando Rabat stops being Chile's Minister of Justice and Human Rights, because he resigns and President José Antonio Kast accepts it, because Kast removes him or moves him to another post, or because the Senate removes him through a constitutional accusation, per the Government of Chile or top-tier press (La Tercera, Emol, CNN Chile). A suspension while the accusation is processed does not count. NO if he is still in the post on December 31.

600 points 19 bettors (Cuba time)

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Closes in 51 d 14 h

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48% Yes 52% No

Chart

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30% · Nov 9, 2:35 AM 50% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM 53% · Nov 9, 2:37 AM 59% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM 63% · Nov 9, 2:40 AM 63% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 55% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 46% · Nov 9, 2:43 AM 39% · Nov 9, 2:45 AM 38% · Nov 9, 2:48 AM 38% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 33% · Nov 9, 2:52 AM 30% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM 33% · Nov 9, 2:59 AM 33% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM 33% · Nov 9, 3:03 AM 38% · Nov 9, 3:04 AM 38% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 37% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 39% · Nov 9, 3:16 AM 45% · Nov 9, 3:19 AM 45% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM 48% · Nov 9, 3:23 AM 48% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM 48% · Nov 9, 3:36 AM

YES 48%

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How the pot stands

YES 48% 52% NO
Pays x2.06 Pays x1.93
290 points310 points
Pot %

Context

La pregunta plantea si Fernando Rabat dejará de ser ministro de Justicia y Derechos Humanos de Chile antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026, considerando renuncia aceptada, remoción, cambio de cartera o destitución por el Senado. No hay titulares disponibles que aporten hechos recientes sobre el tema. En La Ponina, la predicción se reparte con 400 puntos: 30% para el SÍ y 70% para el NO.

Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 2:57 AM.

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Timeline

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Market rules

 YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) Fernando Rabat stops being Chile's Minister of Justice and Human Rights, because he resigns and President José Antonio Kast accepts it, because Kast removes him or moves him to another post, or because the Senate removes him through a constitutional accusation, per the Government of Chile or top-tier press (La Tercera, Emol, CNN Chile). A suspension while the accusation is processed does not count. NO if he is still in the post on December 31. Closes Dec 30, 6:00 PM.
Question
Does Rabat leave Kast's cabinet before December 31?
How it resolves
YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) Fernando Rabat stops being Chile's Minister of Justice and Human Rights, because he resigns and President José Antonio Kast accepts it, because Kast removes him or moves him to another post, or because the Senate removes him through a constitutional accusation, per the Government of Chile or top-tier press (La Tercera, Emol, CNN Chile). A suspension while the accusation is processed does not count. NO if he is still in the post on December 31.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
Gobierno de Chile, comunicados (https://www.gob.cl/noticias/); confirmation: La Tercera / Emol / CNN ChileBoth sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Dec 30, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.

Questions about this ponina

What do people say right now?

Right now 48% of the points are on YES and 52% on NO.

How many people have put points?

19 people have put 600 points in total.

What are people saying in the chat?

There are 4 comments. The chat is further down this same page.

When does it close?

It closes on Dec 30, 6:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.

How do I put points?

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How is it decided?

YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) Fernando Rabat stops being Chile's Minister of Justice and Human Rights, because he resigns and President José Antonio Kast accepts it, because Kast removes him or moves him to another post, or because the Senate removes him through a constitutional accusation, per the Government of Chile or top-tier press (La Tercera, Emol, CNN Chile). A suspension while the accusation is processed does not count. NO if he is still in the post on December 31. Closes Dec 30, 6:00 PM.

Can I follow it without putting points?

Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.

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