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Does the U.S. move warships off Cuba before November 29?
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The story
At his Fort Myers rally, Trump promised that ships coming back from the war with Iran «will pass Cuba»: «We'll do a little stopover. We'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast, and then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal».
Minutes later, Rubio posted that «now is the time» for Cuba. The dictatorship answered with the Moncada 2026 exercise and tanks moved by train from Camagüey, according to CiberCuba, while the people remain without power or food. But the Iran war is not over, and Trump tied his promise to it.
Sources AP (vía News4JAX)CiberCuba
YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation.
Closes in 19 d 8 h
Say yours: why YES or why NO?
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Chart
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20% · Nov 9, 2:35 AM 50% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:37 AM 71% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM 67% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:40 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 76% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 78% · Nov 9, 2:43 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:46 AM 77% · Nov 9, 2:49 AM 77% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 79% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 69% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:57 AM 64% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM 63% · Nov 9, 3:03 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:06 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 53% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:17 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM 50% · Nov 9, 3:27 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:30 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:35 AM
YES 52%
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How the pot stands
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YES 52% 48% NO
Pays x1.93 Pays x2.06
330 points310 points
It's how many points are on each option. Not an official probability — it's what people think with their points.
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Timeline
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Market rules
YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation. Closes Nov 28, 12:00 PM.
- Question
- Does the U.S. move warships off Cuba before November 29?
- How it resolves
- YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
- Sources
- Departamento de Guerra / Pentágono (https://www.defense.gov/) y Casa Blanca (https://www.whitehouse.gov/); confirmation: AP / ReutersBoth sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
- Close
- Nov 28, 12:00 PM (Cuba time).
- Options
- YES / NO
- If known early
- If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
- If postponed
- If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
- If canceled
- If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.
Questions about this ponina
What do people say right now?
Right now 52% of the points are on YES and 48% on NO.
How many people have put points?
19 people have put 640 points in total.
What are people saying in the chat?
There are 4 comments. The chat is further down this same page.
When does it close?
It closes on Nov 28, 12:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.
How do I put points?
Pick an option and put your free points. If you are right, you take your share of the losing option's points.
How is it decided?
YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation. Closes Nov 28, 12:00 PM.
Can I follow it without putting points?
Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.