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Does the U.S. move warships off Cuba before November 29?

Your prediction No

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The story

At his Fort Myers rally, Trump promised that ships coming back from the war with Iran «will pass Cuba»: «We'll do a little stopover. We'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast, and then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal».

Minutes later, Rubio posted that «now is the time» for Cuba. The dictatorship answered with the Moncada 2026 exercise and tanks moved by train from Camagüey, according to CiberCuba, while the people remain without power or food. But the Iran war is not over, and Trump tied his promise to it.

Sources AP (vía News4JAX)CiberCuba

YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation.

570 points 17 bettors (Cuba time)

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Closes in 19 d 8 h

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?
54% Yes 46% No

Chart

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1D1W1MAll
20% · Nov 9, 2:35 AM 50% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:37 AM 71% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM 67% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:40 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 76% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM 78% · Nov 9, 2:43 AM 72% · Nov 9, 2:46 AM 77% · Nov 9, 2:49 AM 77% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 79% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM 69% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM 64% · Nov 9, 2:57 AM 64% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM 63% · Nov 9, 3:03 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:06 AM 57% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 53% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:17 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM 54% · Nov 9, 3:23 AM

YES 54%

What people are saying

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How the pot stands

YES 54% 46% NO
Pays x1.83 Pays x2.19
310 points260 points
Pot %

LiveRight now

Minimum All 502001,000
  1. CerroBaila_39 put 20 points on YES 6 min ago
  2. TaxiStats2 put 40 points on NO 11 min ago
  3. TIJERA_MIRAMAR put 50 points on NO 17 min ago
  4. Mami_Yaque_Tampa put 20 points on NO 20 min ago
  5. Chevy57Rojo put 20 points on YES 20 min ago
  6. changuisero put 30 points on NO 26 min ago
  7. Yane_Flow put 50 points on NO 27 min ago
  8. RUMBACENTRO put 40 points on YES 31 min ago

Timeline

  1. Opened
  2. ClosesNext

Market rules

 YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation. Closes Nov 28, 12:00 PM.
Question
Does the U.S. move warships off Cuba before November 29?
How it resolves
YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
Departamento de Guerra / Pentágono (https://www.defense.gov/) y Casa Blanca (https://www.whitehouse.gov/); confirmation: AP / ReutersBoth sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Nov 28, 12:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.

Questions about this ponina

What do people say right now?

Right now 54% of the points are on YES and 46% on NO.

How many people have put points?

17 people have put 570 points in total.

What are people saying in the chat?

There are 3 comments. The chat is further down this same page.

When does it close?

It closes on Nov 28, 12:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.

How do I put points?

Pick an option and put your free points. If you are right, you take your share of the losing option's points.

How is it decided?

YES if between November 9 and November 28, 2026 (Miami time) the Pentagon, the White House or at least two of AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post or CNN confirm that one or more U.S. Navy warships were placed off Cuba's coast as pressure on the regime (routine movements to or from the Guantánamo base and normal Caribbean transit do not count). NO if November 29 arrives without that confirmation. Closes Nov 28, 12:00 PM.

Can I follow it without putting points?

Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.

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