Does Maykel Osorbo leave Cuba before January 1, 2027?
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The story
EE.
UU. le dio parole humanitario en julio y sigue en prisión.
YES if, before January 1, 2027, reliable outlets or his circle confirm that Maykel Osorbo (Maykel Castillo) left prison and traveled out of Cuba. NO if he is still in Cuba on that date. Resolves with reports from CiberCuba, Cubanet, Diario de Cuba or official U.S. statements (Miami time).
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YES 51%
What people are saying
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It's how many points are on each option. Not an official probability — it's what people think with their points. More in How it works
Context
La pregunta plantea si Maykel Osorbo (Maykel Castillo) saldrá de Cuba antes del 1 de enero de 2027, tras salir de prisión y viajar fuera del país. En La Ponina se han puesto 890 puntos en esta predicción, repartidos con un 51% a favor del SÍ y un 49% para el NO. No hay titulares disponibles que aporten hechos recientes sobre su situación. La resolución dependerá de reportes de medios confiables o declaraciones oficiales de EE. UU.
Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 4:03 AM.
YES if, before January 1, 2027, reliable outlets or his circle confirm that Maykel Osorbo (Maykel Castillo) left prison and traveled out of Cuba. NO if he is still in Cuba on that date. Resolves with reports from CiberCuba, Cubanet, Diario de Cuba or official U.S. statements (Miami time). Closes Dec 15, 8:00 PM.
Question
Does Maykel Osorbo leave Cuba before January 1, 2027?
How it resolves
YES if, before January 1, 2027, reliable outlets or his circle confirm that Maykel Osorbo (Maykel Castillo) left prison and traveled out of Cuba. NO if he is still in Cuba on that date. Resolves with reports from CiberCuba, Cubanet, Diario de Cuba or official U.S. statements (Miami time).The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
CubaHeadlines, etiqueta Maykel Osorbo: parole humanitario el 21 de julio de 2026 (https://www.cubaheadlines.com/tags/maykel-osorbo); confirmation: Diario Las Américas, la CIDH pide anular su condena (https://www.diariolasamericas.com/maykel-osorbo-castillo-a13401)Both sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Dec 15, 8:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.
Questions about this ponina
What do people say right now?
Right now 51% of the points are on YES and 49% on NO.
How many people have put points?
25 people have put 890 points in total.
What are people saying in the chat?
There are 5 comments. The chat is further down this same page.
When does it close?
It closes on Dec 15, 8:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.
How do I put points?
Pick an option and put your free points. If you are right, you take your share of the losing option's points.
How is it decided?
YES if, before January 1, 2027, reliable outlets or his circle confirm that Maykel Osorbo (Maykel Castillo) left prison and traveled out of Cuba. NO if he is still in Cuba on that date. Resolves with reports from CiberCuba, Cubanet, Diario de Cuba or official U.S. statements (Miami time). Closes Dec 15, 8:00 PM.
Can I follow it without putting points?
Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.
