Does Trump send more Cubans to Africa before Christmas?
Free, with points. Tap your side.
The story
Donald Trump admitted on 60 Minutes, in his first interview after losing Congress, that his deportation policy was «maybe too harsh».
But Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wrote the day after the election that «deportations will continue», and Stephen Miller has just become White House chief of staff. CiberCuba reports more than 42,000 Cubans have deportation orders, and Telemundo 51 reported that about 80 deportees, most of them Cuban, reached Bangui in the Central African Republic on October 24, three months after a first flight. The question is whether another plane with Cubans leaves for Africa before Christmas.
YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period.
83% · Nov 9, 3:22 AM71% · Nov 9, 3:23 AM42% · Nov 9, 3:24 AM33% · Nov 9, 3:25 AM41% · Nov 9, 3:27 AM52% · Nov 9, 3:28 AM42% · Nov 9, 3:30 AM42% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM46% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM39% · Nov 9, 3:35 AM38% · Nov 9, 3:38 AM38% · Nov 9, 3:41 AM33% · Nov 9, 3:41 AM32% · Nov 9, 3:45 AM31% · Nov 9, 3:54 AM
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It's how many points are on each option. Not an official probability — it's what people think with their points. More in How it works
Context
La pregunta plantea si, entre el 9 de noviembre y el 24 de diciembre de 2026, aterrizará en algún país de África un vuelo de deportación del Gobierno de Estados Unidos con al menos un cubano a bordo, según confirmación oficial o de un medio de referencia. No se han dado titulares que aporten hechos sobre el tema. En La Ponina, la pregunta reparte 260 puntos, con 42% inclinado por el SÍ y 58% por el NO.
Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 3:31 AM.
YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period. Closes Dec 23, 6:00 PM.
Question
Does Trump send more Cubans to Africa before Christmas?
How it resolves
YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
DHS/ICE y Telemundo 51, cobertura de deportaciones de cubanos a África (https://www.telemundo51.com/noticias/local/es-como-si-estuvieramos-muertas-cubanas-deportadas-a-africa-denuncian-maltratos-y-condiciones-precarias/2841161/); confirmation: CiberCuba, Martí Noticias y Diario de Cuba, cobertura de vuelos de deportación (https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-11-09-u1-e208512-s27061-nid345283-trump-admite-politica-deportaciones-fue-demasiado)Both sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Dec 23, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.
Questions about this ponina
What do people say right now?
Right now 30% of the points are on YES and 70% on NO.
How many people have put points?
14 people have put 430 points in total.
What are people saying in the chat?
No comments yet. You can start the conversation below.
When does it close?
It closes on Dec 23, 6:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.
How do I put points?
Pick an option and put your free points. If you are right, you take your share of the losing option's points.
How is it decided?
YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period. Closes Dec 23, 6:00 PM.
Can I follow it without putting points?
Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.
