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Does Trump send more Cubans to Africa before Christmas?

Your prediction No

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The story

Donald Trump admitted on 60 Minutes, in his first interview after losing Congress, that his deportation policy was «maybe too harsh».

But Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin wrote the day after the election that «deportations will continue», and Stephen Miller has just become White House chief of staff. CiberCuba reports more than 42,000 Cubans have deportation orders, and Telemundo 51 reported that about 80 deportees, most of them Cuban, reached Bangui in the Central African Republic on October 24, three months after a first flight. The question is whether another plane with Cubans leaves for Africa before Christmas.

Sources CiberCubaTelemundo 51CBS 60 Minutes (vía EFE)

YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period.

390 points 11 bettors Closes Dec 23, 6:00 PM (Cuba time)

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Closes in 44 d 14 h

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33% Yes 67% No

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1D 1W 1M All

83% · Nov 9, 3:22 AM 71% · Nov 9, 3:23 AM 42% · Nov 9, 3:24 AM 33% · Nov 9, 3:25 AM 41% · Nov 9, 3:27 AM 52% · Nov 9, 3:28 AM 42% · Nov 9, 3:30 AM 42% · Nov 9, 3:31 AM 33% · Nov 9, 3:43 AM

YES 33%

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How the pot stands

YES 33% 67% NO

Pays x3.00 Pays x1.50

130 points260 points

Pot %

Context

La pregunta plantea si, entre el 9 de noviembre y el 24 de diciembre de 2026, aterrizará en algún país de África un vuelo de deportación del Gobierno de Estados Unidos con al menos un cubano a bordo, según confirmación oficial o de un medio de referencia. No se han dado titulares que aporten hechos sobre el tema. En La Ponina, la pregunta reparte 260 puntos, con 42% inclinado por el SÍ y 58% por el NO.

Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 3:31 AM.

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Minimum All 50 200 1,000

changuisero put 50 points on NO 1 min ago
jonronazo68 put 10 points on NO 5 min ago
JL1987 put 50 points on NO 8 min ago
VEGUERO_PR put 20 points on YES 12 min ago
MANI_CALIENTE put 50 points on NO 13 min ago
PerlaDelSur_MD put 40 points on YES 15 min ago
MaestraMari_ put 20 points on YES 16 min ago
carretadebueyes put 30 points on NO 17 min ago
carretadebueyes put 50 points on NO 19 min ago
0xcafe1950a put 10 points on NO 20 min ago
carretadebueyes put 10 points on NO 21 min ago
anzuelito put 30 points on YES 22 min ago
yuni_bici put 20 points on YES 23 min ago

Timeline

Opened Nov 9, 3:20 AM
ClosesNext Dec 23, 6:00 PM

Market rules

Question: Does Trump send more Cubans to Africa before Christmas?
How it resolves: YES if, between November 9 and December 24, 2026 (Miami time), a US government (ICE/DHS) deportation flight with at least one Cuban national on board lands in any African country, per DHS/ICE or at least one reference outlet (Telemundo 51, Univision, Martí Noticias, CiberCuba, Diario de Cuba or EFE) with testimony or official confirmation. Third-country removals to Africa count; flights to Cuba do not. NO if no such flight lands in that period.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources: DHS/ICE y Telemundo 51, cobertura de deportaciones de cubanos a África (https://www.telemundo51.com/noticias/local/es-como-si-estuvieramos-muertas-cubanas-deportadas-a-africa-denuncian-maltratos-y-condiciones-precarias/2841161/); confirmation: CiberCuba, Martí Noticias y Diario de Cuba, cobertura de vuelos de deportación (https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-11-09-u1-e208512-s27061-nid345283-trump-admite-politica-deportaciones-fue-demasiado)Both sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close: Dec 23, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options: YES / NO
If known early: If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed: If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled: If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.

Questions about this ponina

What do people say right now?

Right now 33% of the points are on YES and 67% on NO.

How many people have put points?

11 people have put 390 points in total.

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4,750 points 4343 people on this ponina 27Comments 203d 19h Save

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YES 33% · NO 67%

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