Does Delcy sign the US troop pact before December 31?
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The story
According to The New York Times, Marco Rubio's State Department, not the Pentagon, is negotiating with interim president Delcy Rodríguez's government an agreement on the status of US troops in Venezuela, a legal framework for its military in the country.
Rubio put it this way: «We would like at some point to have a presence agreement». A senior official said talk of military bases is «very, very far» off, and Venezuela's foreign ministry has not commented. The paper warns that many Venezuelans could see those troops as colonialism, after Trump spoke of the «conquest of Venezuela».
SourcesThe New York Times (vía Semana y El Pitazo)Escudo DigitalRunrun.es
YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) the Delcy Rodríguez government and the US sign, or officially announce as signed, a written agreement on the presence or status of US troops in Venezuela (a SOFA or «presence agreement»), per the State Department, the Venezuelan government or top-tier press. NO if in that period there are only talks, drafts or statements without a signature.
73% · Nov 9, 2:36 AM78% · Nov 9, 2:38 AM82% · Nov 9, 2:39 AM82% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM85% · Nov 9, 2:41 AM86% · Nov 9, 2:42 AM87% · Nov 9, 2:44 AM79% · Nov 9, 2:45 AM77% · Nov 9, 2:48 AM77% · Nov 9, 2:51 AM80% · Nov 9, 2:52 AM82% · Nov 9, 2:55 AM75% · Nov 9, 2:59 AM75% · Nov 9, 3:01 AM76% · Nov 9, 3:02 AM72% · Nov 9, 3:05 AM73% · Nov 9, 3:10 AM73% · Nov 9, 3:11 AM70% · Nov 9, 3:13 AM66% · Nov 9, 3:14 AM64% · Nov 9, 3:17 AM59% · Nov 9, 3:18 AM59% · Nov 9, 3:21 AM60% · Nov 9, 3:36 AM
It's how many points are on each option. Not an official probability — it's what people think with their points. More in How it works
Context
La pregunta plantea si el gobierno de Delcy Rodríguez y el de Estados Unidos firmarán o anunciarán oficialmente un acuerdo escrito sobre la presencia o el estatus de tropas estadounidenses en Venezuela antes del 30 de diciembre de 2026. El único titular disponible reporta que Delcy Rodríguez rindió homenaje a Estados Unidos y recordó los 191 años de relaciones diplomáticas entre ambos países. En La Ponina, la predicción se inclina hacia el SÍ con 440 puntos en total, repartidos en 82% para el SÍ y 18% para el NO.
Summary made by AI from the question, its rules, the points and the news; it does not decide the result. Updated Nov 9, 2:57 AM.
YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) the Delcy Rodríguez government and the US sign, or officially announce as signed, a written agreement on the presence or status of US troops in Venezuela (a SOFA or «presence agreement»), per the State Department, the Venezuelan government or top-tier press. NO if in that period there are only talks, drafts or statements without a signature. Closes Dec 30, 6:00 PM.
Question
Does Delcy sign the US troop pact before December 31?
How it resolves
YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) the Delcy Rodríguez government and the US sign, or officially announce as signed, a written agreement on the presence or status of US troops in Venezuela (a SOFA or «presence agreement»), per the State Department, the Venezuelan government or top-tier press. NO if in that period there are only talks, drafts or statements without a signature.The first official result published by the primary source counts.
Sources
Departamento de Estado de EE. UU., comunicados (https://www.state.gov/); confirmation: Gobierno de Venezuela y AP / Reuters / The New York TimesBoth sources must agree. While we confirm it you will see "Confirming".
Close
Dec 30, 6:00 PM (Cuba time).
Options
YES / NO
If known early
If the result becomes known before the close, the market goes to Confirming and closes. During Confirming we review what happened and anyone can send evidence.
If postponed
If the event is postponed, the market continues and closes before the new date. If it can no longer be confirmed, it is voided and everything is refunded.
If canceled
If the event is canceled, everything is refunded.
Questions about this ponina
What do people say right now?
Right now 60% of the points are on YES and 40% on NO.
How many people have put points?
19 people have put 700 points in total.
What are people saying in the chat?
There are 3 comments. The chat is further down this same page.
When does it close?
It closes on Dec 30, 6:00 PM (Cuba time). Until then you can put points.
How do I put points?
Pick an option and put your free points. If you are right, you take your share of the losing option's points.
How is it decided?
YES if between November 9 and December 30, 2026 (Miami time) the Delcy Rodríguez government and the US sign, or officially announce as signed, a written agreement on the presence or status of US troops in Venezuela (a SOFA or «presence agreement»), per the State Department, the Venezuelan government or top-tier press. NO if in that period there are only talks, drafts or statements without a signature. Closes Dec 30, 6:00 PM.
Can I follow it without putting points?
Yes. The percentage, the chart and the chat update on their own: check it whenever you like without putting anything.
